Hunger is in the Forecast

A SNAP storm is coming, and food insecure families are directly in its path. Since October 2025, consequential policy changes stemming from H.R. 1, or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, have begun to erode SNAP participation. Many able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) who were previously exempt from work requirements are no longer exempt. Veterans, homeless individuals, and former foster youth must now also meet these work requirements in an incredibly competitive job market. 

As a result, just one year after H.R. 1’s passage, nearly four million fewer people are participating in SNAP. While some praise this drop in participation, neither the unemployment rate nor the labor market data lends itself to this celebratory posture. Some SNAP participants were forced off. Some left voluntarily. Others, like Rhonda Keene in Texas, are attempting to navigate the increased administrative complexity, while many others have given up.

Children Are Leaving SNAP at an Alarming Rate 

Among those who likely left SNAP voluntarily are the families that the program is designed to serve. Families with children are less affected by changes to work requirements, given that adults with children under the age of 14 are exempt from work requirements. Yet, among the states that publicly report child SNAP participation data, more than 800,000 fewer children are receiving SNAP benefits according to data from mid to late spring. This decline in child participation accounts for half of the total SNAP participation decline in these states. For states like Arizona, Louisiana, and Texas, the decline in participation is more pronounced. These families should have been insulated from the brewing storm. They were not. 

SNAP Cost-Sharing Provisions Are Expected to Further Decrease Enrollment 

By itself, the drop in SNAP participation for children is alarming, but this is just the beginning of the storm. The numbers reported so far reflect policy changes that are already in effect. They do not reflect the cost-sharing provisions that will require states to fund SNAP benefits directly for the first time. 

Bread for the World, other partners, and advocates have sounded the alarm that the cost-sharing provisions will place a financial strain on most state budgets. USDA released SNAP payment error rates for 2025, and it brings the coming tempest into clearer focus. While this latest data shows that nine states are currently unlikely to pay any portion of SNAP benefits due to error rates below six percent, 35 states will begin paying a percentage of benefits in October 2027. Calculations using 2025 SNAP payments and payment error rates show that those 35 states will need to absorb more than $11 billion in new state budget costs. Six states – Alaska, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon – and Washington, D.C. have an additional year delay due to exceptionally high error rates. 

How States Plan to Respond to the SNAP Cost-Sharing Provisions in H.R. 1

Some states may attempt to cover these new costs by raising new revenue or tapping into rainy day funds. Other states are likely to do all they can to reduce their financial responsibility. This could include lowering their payment error rates or worse, further restricting SNAP eligibility. For those states, fewer eligible families mean a smaller bill.

The anticipated response from many states will result in an even greater reduction in SNAP participation than we are currently seeing. These expected changes are the most damaging part of the coming storm. As a result, our nation’s most effective food assistance program will be left unable to meet the needs of the families who are struggling to put food on the table. Not because SNAP doesn’t work, but because the federal government didn’t give states the time, the tools, or the resources to weather this storm.

Congress Can Lessen the Damage

Families losing benefits, children losing access to SNAP, states about to receive a bill they cannot pay – none of this is inevitable. The storm is building, and the sirens are sounding, but unlike the storms that roll across our skies each summer, this one can be stopped. 

Storms are inevitable. Harmful policy is not. 

Congress is at a critical juncture to lessen the blow to children and families who already struggle to eat, and state leaders who will face difficult choices on how to administer SNAP.

As the Senate takes up its version of the Farm Bill, constituents should reach out to their senators to explain what this policy storm will mean for them, their families, and their community. Congress can calm this storm by delaying the implementation of the cost-sharing provisions. Giving states more time to plan and address these challenges won’t restore food benefits for hundreds of thousands of eligible children – but it could change the forecast of hunger for millions of food insecure families in the coming months.  

Taylor Johnson is a Domestic Policy Advisor at Bread for the World’s Policy and Research Institute (PRI).